There's a potential competitor in the prediction market space and its Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has a development team working on an experimental standalone app, internally called "Arena," through which users would be able to weigh in on the outcomes of sporting events, political contests and other questions, The New York Times reports.
Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, however, the Meta platform would not involve cash wagers, at least initially. Instead, Arena would employ a points system reminiscent of a video game, according to the article, which cited two unnamed Meta employees.
Meta would leverage its social media platforms to nudge people to its prediction market.
CNBC said news of Zuckerberg's initiative may have caused declines in the market values of DraftKings and the parent of FanDuel, Flutter Entertainment, last 23 June. The sports betting platforms are seen as potentially vulnerable to prediction markets.
Prediction markets — on which people buy or sell contracts based on the predicted outcome of an event — have surged in popularity and generate billions of dollars in transactions. They are increasingly scrutinized, too.
Accusations of insider trading, including politicians betting on their own races, have surfaced.
Kalshi reported former New York Congressman George Santos to federal prosecutors after he said he'd be going to President Donald Trump's State of the Union address in February before betting against his own attendance.
In April, the U.S. Department of Justice said a special operations officer used classified knowledge to net US$ 400,000 on a prediction market that speculated on the future of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Maduro was captured by U.S. forces on 3 January.
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